International economy: Groundswells in relatively calm waters

Amidst a geopolitical environment undergoing reconfiguration, many economic paradigms once thought to be immutable are now shifting before our eyes. This paper aims to provide a brief overview of them, or at least some of them. The relative resilience of global growth in 2025, seen across both advanced and emerging and developing economies, could well continue into 2026 within a landscape of apparent continuity. But in reality, the ingredients of this growth are changing. And while growth has been on a downward trend since the 2008 financial crisis, it is far from certain that the new recipe will be enough to reverse this trend. The first ingredient is that real interest rates have (almost) turned positive again everywhere (normalization is underway in Japan, although it will take time). However, the fact remains that this return to a form of monetary orthodoxy is holding back growth. In addition, after starting to cut its rates, the Fed is already considering using its balance sheet again as a driver to support Financial liquidity, which is being tested by the growing financing needs of the U.S. Treasury.